Trump is experiencing the moment of truth of his presidency. And perhaps even his two presidencies. Not so much on a military level, but rather on a political level. Because if its electorate still holds (55% of Republicans support the strikes on Iran), the Maga galaxy is starting to crack. Since the launch of “Epic Fury” on February 28, anger has been brewing, sometimes openly. Tucker Carlson and Megyn Kelly, two former Fox News stars, expressed it bluntly. Kelly dropped a sentence that sums it all up: “No one should die for a foreign country. » Carlson adding to strikes “absolutely disgusting”.
The quarrel quickly degenerated into open warfare among the opinion makers of Trumpism. Other commentators, such as Mark Levin and Ben Shapiro, on the contrary defend the presidential decision, accusing critics of abandoning Israel and Western security. The basic question is simple: has Trumpism become interventionist? For nearly a decade, Trump had presented himself as the man who would end “endless wars”especially in the Middle East. However, for part of public opinion, the attack on Iran looks like a return to the neoconservative reflexes that the Maga movement claimed to have buried.
In this earthquake, JD Vance remains silent. The vice president observes
Two variables can change everything. The first is the flag effect. The White House is betting on a classic patriotic reflex: in times of war, part of the public rallies around the president… For the moment, this is not happening. Trump is now below 40% in most major national polls. Among independent voters, the drop is even more marked: only 31% of them say they have a favorable opinion of the president, according to a survey published this week by Newsweek. None rally around the flagin other words no flag effect, is visible at this stage. Little hope: the last time a Republican president won the midterms was George W. Bush, in 2002, in the midst of his intervention in Iraq!
JD Vance remains silent
Then there’s gasoline. The average price of a gallon jumped 26 cents in one week to reach $3.25, the highest since April 2025. If the Strait of Hormuz does not reopen quickly, experts anticipate a barrel at 100 dollars and a gallon at 4 dollars… In the United States, a president’s rating is also measured at the gas station. And there it is Middle America – the one who votes for Trump – who will toast first.
In this earthquake, JD Vance remains silent. The vice president observes. Less interventionist than Secretary of State Marco Rubio, his very likely rival for the 2028 Republican primary, he also remains more attentive to the populist base of Trumpism. A base where evangelicals occupy a central place. Last Thursday in the Oval Office, several pastors laid hands on Trump and prayed with him. This fervent and disciplined segment of the Republican electorate is the most pro-Israel in the country. The conflict will perhaps seal the fate of the mullahs. He will also say how far Trump can still lead his people.
