The Tangwall Campagin. On a theoretical level, how do you characterize the economic policy of Donald Trump ? What are its objectives?
Sébastien Laye. In the past, I have used the term “pragmatic liberalism” in relation to Trumpenomics (economic policies led by Donald Trump, Editor’s note). In this regard, its economic software remains consistent with the line of the Reaganite American conservatives, who in France can be described as “liberal-conservatives”: the primacy given to the market, the fight against bureaucracies, a central state reduced to the strict minimum, low and attractive taxation, deregulation.
But compared to the neo-liberalism established as a line of conduct – by Bush Sr. more than by Reagan in fact – Donald Trump and his advisors (and in particular his Secretary of the Treasury, Scott Bessent) ultimately return to the classic liberalism of the 19th century: at that time, liberalism was not reduced to international free trade. William McKinley (president of the United States from 1897 to 1901, reference of the “golden age” praised by Donald Trump) was indeed a Republican, and often cited as a model by Trump, more than the Bushes. The reintegration of economic sovereignty, of geo-economic considerations linked to American power, of certain forms of mercantilism, allows Trump to bury the neo-liberalism of the post-Cold War, and to return to the sources of liberalism.
What are his inspirations?
When it comes to presidents and their economic policies, we have to go back to the 19th century: Andrew Jackson (7th President of the United States, in office from 1829 to 1837, and the first from the Democratic Party) and McKinley. In terms of economists, classical liberals like Adam Smith and Jean-Baptiste Say are constantly cited by the president’s advisors. To better understand this influence, you must read the two works of Arthur Laffer – the economist who formalized the Laffer curve, the idea according to which beyond a certain level, increasing taxes reduces the state’s tax revenue: Trumponomics (2018) and The Trump Economic Miracle (2024).
“Trump is only returning to the sources of classic liberalism”
We detect the influence of people like Peter Navarro, one of the American president’s advisors, on the trade war. Scott Bessent, Howard Lutnick (United States Secretary of Commerce) and Kevin Hassett (President of the National Economic Council of the United States), in charge today, are now more involved in the application of this software, forged during the first term of Donald Trump.
Has Donald Trump invented a form of third way between liberalism and state interventionism?
No, precisely, this is the thesis that I object to. Many commentators have the impression of a third way because they have been lobotomized for thirty years on the nature of liberalism. By confusing it with the vulgate of certain post-war economists (notably Paul Samuelson) and the neo-liberal consensus of institutions like the European Commission or the IMF, they fantasized their own vision of liberalism, often confused with simple free trade. Trump is only returning to the sources of classic liberalism.
Can this path survive him?
The reset of the trade war lasts several years; At the end of his second term, the transition will be accomplished and the post-Cold War economic regime, which no longer corresponded to America’s economic interests, will be definitively buried. His successor, even if he is a Democrat, will not be able to call it into question. Priorities will also change. In 2028, we will talk more about AI, purchasing power or the deficit than about prices.
His economic policy is considered “erratic” by some observers, an impression given in particular by his procrastination on customs duties imposed on other countries. Do you share this analysis?
The complexity of the analysis of tariffs comes from the fact that in addition to being economic tools, they have sometimes been used as negotiating levers on other subjects: international political alliances, repression of contraband (fentanyl), discussions to end certain conflicts. This multifactorial nature of customs duties, sometimes economic tools, sometimes political, could have given this impression of chaos at certain times.
*Sébastien Laye, Franco-American entrepreneur and economist, is “Economic Policy Advisor” for the Republicans Overseas.
